Friday, May 27, 2011

Handy Guide to the Philosophy behind Financial Websites

Each financial blog and web site conveys its own particular messages and ideas. The ideas vary from site to site, and one blog or web site will usually contradict the advice that another site is giving. To understand why the authors of financial sites say what they say, it is helpful to first understand what their philosophy is, what assumptions they are making, and what perspective they are using for their view of the world.

If you can identify your own financial philosophy, assumptions, and perspective, you can use this handy chart to find those financial blogs and sites that will give you the type of financial guidance you are looking for.


The chart categorizes financial sites in two broad categories: “Mainstream” or popular sites are in blue, and “Edgy” and lesser-known sites are in olive green.

The Y-axis shows the degree of “community” that surrounds each site. News/Link aggregators have the least community feel to them. Sites that provide analysis without any comments from readers are next. Sites that offer analysis with reader comments have a relatively stronger community feel about them. And of course, the dedicated online communities are the most communal.

The X-axis shows the economic outlook of the authors of each site. The various outlooks are:

  • Bull – an optimist who believes the world economy is returning to prosperity now.
  • Bear – an optimist who believes the world economy will muddle through a recession for a few years, then return to prosperity.
  • Deflationist – a catastrophist who believes there will be a catastrophic asset and commodity crash, localized civil unrest, no economic recovery for a decade or longer; that financial and political leaders are inept/corrupt; and that the US dollar and US treasuries will remain viable stores of wealth.
  • Hyperinflationist, Gold/Silver bug – a catastrophist who believes that there will be a catastrophic asset and commodity crash, a US dollar crisis and fiat currency crash, widespread civil unrest; that a new economic system will emerge based on sound money; that the US dollar and US treasuries are no longer viable stores of wealth; that financial and political leaders are inept/corrupt; and that it might be a good idea to find a quiet place to live outside the US.
  • Survivalist – a catastrophist who believes that there will be an apocalyptic collapse of civilization, that the power and utility grids will cease to function, that law and order will break down completely, and that the economic system will be based on barter and precious metals for a long time to come.
  • Anti-Globalist – a catastrophist who believes that there is a world-wide conspiracy of powerful elites who conspire to usurp power over the general population and over the nations of the world, and that financial and political leaders are either puppets of the conspiracy or complicit in it.

I describe each of these outlooks as either "Optimist" or "Catastrophist". Here is a comparison between optimists and catastrophist:

Economic and Political Philosophy
Optimist -- Keynesian, interventionist
Catastrophist -- Austrian, Libertarian

General Outlook
Optimist -- Believes the current economic and financial system is safe from any catastrophic crash
Catastrophist -- Believes the current economic and financial system faces imminent collapse

Disparaging Descriptions
Optimist -- Sheeple, Polyanna, Victim
Catastrophist -- Tinfoil hatter, Conspiracist, Chicken Little

Wealth Strategy
Optimist -- Use paper assets such as stocks and bonds to accumulate paper currency
Catastrophist -- Trade paper currency for physical ounces of precious metals and other hard assets

Strategy for Wealth Growth
Optimist -- Own stocks
Catastrophist -- Hold physical silver

Strategy for Wealth Preservation
Optimist -- Own bonds
Catastrophist -- Hold physical gold

Financial Faith
Optimist -- Believes in fiat currency, paper promises; fully trusts typical counter-parties
Catastrophist -- Distrusts paper currency, distrusts paper promises, distrusts typical counter-parties

Overall Financial Goal
Optimist -- Wealth growth
Catastrophist -- Wealth preservation

Opinion of Conspiracies
Optimist -- Considering evidence of conspiracies is for tinfoil hatters only
Catastrophist -- Ignoring evidence of conspiracies is for sheeple

Opinion of Mainstream Media (MSM)
Optimist -- The MSM outlets are the only sources of reliable information
Catastrophist -- The MSM outlets are puppets of the corrupt and conspiring political and financial power-elite

Here is a rundown of each site

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Use these articles to learn what is actually happening in the world economy, then do yourself and your family a favor and divest yourself of paper-based assets and move to rural Idaho.
  • Both
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Here are links to useful articles on gold and silver, stocks, and mining enterprises.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Listen to what highly intelligent and perceptive money managers and precious metals investors are saying and doing right now to preserve wealth.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: This is where you will find the story behind the story, where truth and insight can be found.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me:  The rich and the powerful in the world are all saying the same, deceptive things. Read our blog and see how easy it is to recognize and decode their subliminal messages and free yourself from their servitude.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Debt-based, fiat currency is a barbarous relic. The current economic contraction will cause the value of all paper-based assets to evaporate, and here is why. There are new approaches to sound money that are far superior to debt-based, fiat currency.

  • Both
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Read our blog to learn how to preserve your capital. Sometimes we say that precious metals are the way to do it because of inflation/hyperinflation, but sometimes we say precious metals are not the way to do it because of deflation.

  • Both
  • What they seem to be saying to me: We cover the gamut of business news and events. In addition to bearish news, we will occasionally report inflation, deflation, and bullish articles as well.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Look at the incontrovertible evidence of the endemic corruption in the existing financial system. This system is not sustainable and will not last, and it is likely to come to a violent end.

  • Optimist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Everyone relax. Precious metals have a bright future, but the existing financial system will be fine. SLV is completely safe -- just look at these reports from their auditors. Can you believe how stupid/crazy those tinfoil hatters are over at Zero Hedge? Here, look at what ZH is saying now...

  • Catastrophist
  • What he seems to be saying to me: A deflationary collapse is the obvious outcome.

  • Catastrophist
  • What he seems to be saying to me: A hyperinflationary collapse is the obvious outcome.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Our personal freedom and liberty are in danger. Wake up, think about it, and assert your rights.

  • Catastrophist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: With the Hunt Brothers purchasing silver in 1979, silver began to threaten the monetary viability of the unbacked US Dollar. The Comex raised the margin requirements on silver to the point that the Hunt Brothers could not meet the margin call, and silver crashed in 1980. Today, Max Keiser's Silver Liberation Army is buying physical silver (without margin) in a broad-based assault on the US Dollar and the corrupt institutions behind it.

  • Optimist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Here is the back story on why you should be bearish/bullish. Yeah, a deflationary collapse might happen, and it would be terrible if it ever did, but let's not get crazy and actually consider whether a collapse is possible!

  • Optimist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: Try these can't-miss stocks!

  • Optimist
  • What they seem to be saying to me: We're more bull (ahem) than bear. The worst is behind us. Here's how to play the stock market!

Even though you perhaps can already infer where my personal preferences are, I will outline my own financial philosophy, assumptions, and perspective in tomorrow's post, so you can better understand the context of my view of these sites.



5 comments:

  1. Nice. Is there some Z-axis meaning to, Gonzalo Lira sitting atop ZH? And does your bigger bubble mean Lira has a bigger audience or just more letters in his name than Mish?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am graphically challenged, so there is no Z-axis meaning. The size of the rectangles roughly corresponds to the diversity of their philosophical coverage. Bigger is not necessarily better.

    ReplyDelete
  3. How did you choose these sites and not choose some others like Calculated Risk, Market Ticker, Automatic Earth that are probably just as popular as some that you did choose?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I certainly have missed some sites, and will add them as soon as I have time. I also have to find room for them on the chart...

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is fantastic, thanks for putting it together! I'll post it on my site and probably put it in the sidebar somewhere as a permanent feature. And your viewpoint as an IT outsider looking in from the standpoint of what is quality analysis is incredibly valuable, as you bring no preexisting bias. Great work, I'll be sure to stop by regularly.

    Tofu Mary
    www.tofumary.com

    ReplyDelete